The World Bank’s April 2024 Commodity Outlook Report has been published, forecasting a significant decrease in global food prices for 2024 anticipating a 6 percent drop, followed by an additional 4 percent decline in 2025.
The decrease is primarily attributed to lower prices for grains, oils, and meals, while other foods are expected to experience price gains in 2024 but, 2025 is projected to bring broad-based declines in food prices.
The grains price index is predicted to decrease by 11 per cent in 2024, propelled by increased global grain supplies. Specifically, wheat prices are anticipated to decline by 15 per cent in 2024 due to heightened production, with an additional 2 per cent decrease expected in 2025.
These forecasts are made against a backdrop of intense export competition and slightly increased production, balanced by somewhat higher consumption and the lowest end-of-season stocks-to-use ratio in eight years.
Global maize production is expected to achieve an unprecedented level in the 2023–24 seasons, while global rice production in 2023-24 remains unchanged, leading to the stock-to-use ratio declining to its lowest level in three years.
As a result of tight global markets and export restrictions imposed by India, rice prices are expected to climb by 8 per cent year-on-year in 2024.
In Ghana, there’s a noticeable reversal in food disinflation, with the food inflation rate climbing from 27.0 per cent in February to 29.6 per cent in March 2024.
Amidst ongoing concerns about food insecurity in the sub-Saharan region, the rise in food inflation is notable. With expectations of decreasing global food prices, the impact of these changes on Ghana’s food market and overall food security situation remains uncertain.
