GCB Capital has noted that the short-term inflation outlook remains uncertain, despite ongoing disinflation trends.
The firm expects the disinflation trend to continue into the second half of 2024, yet inflation levels are still relatively high.
In June 2024, inflation decreased to 22.8 per cent.
However, GCB Capital anticipates that increased cedi liquidity, spurred by election momentum in the latter half of 2024, could intensify inflationary pressures.
Consequently, the firm considers the likelihood of a slight rate cut in July 2024 to be remote. Instead, they see a greater chance for such a move in the policy windows of September and November 2024.
Additionally, GCB Capital forecasts a gradual decline in nominal interest rates over this period.
