Inflation in Ghana is expected to drop to 19.0% year-on-year in September 2024, according to a report by IC Research. This would extend the country’s disinflationary trend, following an unexpected decrease to 20.4% in August, the lowest inflation rate since March 2022. The market had predicted a rise to 22.8% in August, but the actual figure was well below expectations.
Despite the overall decline, IC Research projects a month-on-month inflation increase of 0.7% in September, reversing the 0.7% drop in August. This shift is mainly attributed to a 2.2% deflation in food prices, which played a key role in the August figure.
“Our main surprise relates to the month-on-month contraction in the CPI level, which we had historically expected to occur in September,” the report noted, pointing to changing seasonal patterns and deflation in several food categories as factors behind the unexpected drop.
This marks the fifth consecutive month of easing inflation, driven by lower energy costs, improved foreign exchange stability, and strong agricultural output.
While IC Research remains cautiously optimistic about the continued downward trend in inflation, it cautioned that potential food price shocks and election-related demand pressures could pose risks to this outlook.
