Fitch Ratings Agency has forecasted substantial liquidity challenges for Ghana in 2025 and 2026, even after the country successfully restructured most of its debt.
The UK-based agency pointed out that Ghana’s interest-to-revenue ratio remains alarmingly high within its sovereign portfolio. Projections suggest this ratio will reach 29% in 2025 and 30% in 2026, nearly double the emerging market average of 16%.
Call for Fiscal Reforms
Thomas Garreau, Associate Director for Europe, Middle East, and Africa Sovereign Ratings at Fitch, emphasized the urgent need for aggressive fiscal reforms to address Ghana’s economic challenges.
“We still anticipate significant liquidity pressures for Ghana,” Garreau stated. “The country’s interest-to-revenue ratio remains exceptionally high at approximately 30%, which is nearly double the emerging market average. This underscores the need for drastic measures to stabilize the fiscal economy.”
Progress in Fiscal Consolidation
Despite the looming challenges, Fitch acknowledged Ghana’s efforts toward fiscal consolidation. The country achieved a 4.6 percentage point primary fiscal adjustment between 2022 and 2024, signaling some progress in stabilizing its economy.
Outlook on Sovereign Default
Fitch had earlier announced plans to remove Ghana from sovereign default by July 2025. However, the agency cautioned that persistent liquidity pressures and a high interest burden could complicate the country’s journey toward financial stability.
Ghana’s path forward will likely hinge on implementing bold fiscal measures and effectively managing its debt obligations to ensure long-term economic resilience.
