Energy

Fuel prices likely to drop in March, analysts predict

194views

Energy analysts Chamber of Petroleum Consumers (COPEC) has predicted that fuel prices are likely to see a decline in the first pricing window of March 2023.

According to COPEC, prices of both petrol and diesel have all declined marginally within the period while crude price has also minimally dropped from $82.99/barrel to $82.48/barrel (-0.61%).

The chamber said with the international price decreasing from $878.41/MT to $849.25/MT (-3.32%), the retail price works up to GHS13.66/L.

“Petrol Retail prices are therefore expected to drop by 3.73% from the current Mean value of GHS14.20/L. With the International price decreasing from $854.00/MT to $809.38/MT (-5.22%), and the increase in the Dollar rate, the expected mean retail price for the next window shall be GHS13.98/L.

Thus, Diesel prices are therefore expected to drop by 4.04% from the current Mean value of GHS14.57/L,” it added.

The analysts said following from the basic assumptions, that prices of both petrol and diesel have all declined marginally within the period whiles Crude price has also minimally dropped from $82.99/barrel to $82.48/barrel (-0.61%)

Though the Dollar exchange rate has seen a slight increase from averages of GHS12.4697 to GHS12.8650 (3.17%) per $1, further considering the CBOD rate of about $1=GHS14.00, the following shall form the predicted retail figures for Petroleum products from computations by the technical and pricing team, for the 1st pricing window of March under the price deregulation programme of the National Petroleum Authority, which window commences on Wednesday, 1 March 2023. All understated Predictions are factored to be within (+/-)5%, they added.

Petrol

With the international price decreasing from $878.41/MT to $849.25/MT (-3.32%), the retail price works up to GHS13.66/L

Petrol Retail prices are therefore expected to drop by 3.73% from the current Mean value of GHS14.20/L

Diesel

With the International price decreasing from $854.00/MT to $809.38/MT (-5.22%), and the increase in the Dollar rate, the expected mean retail price for the next window shall be GHS13.98/L. Thus, Diesel prices are therefore expected to drop by 4.04% from the current Mean value of GHS14.57/L

Mean Price of Petrol and Diesel

The Mean price of Petrol and Diesel shall be 13.82/L.

LPG

With the international price increasing from $699.45/MT to $702.50/MT (4.94%) the projected retail price of LPG is expected to increase by about 4.36% from the current average of 13.86/kg to GHS14.46/kg.

These expected drops in prices for the second time running since the second pricing window of February 2023 do not have any correlation with the much-touted Gold for Oil programme as these movements are simply a derivative of market forces at play within the period, we still await the reductions the two cargoes brought in this month will add to the relieving the suffering of the petroleum consumer

Advice on LPG consumption

The current high retail prices of LPG have contributed to consumption generally dropping by 12% year on year in 2022,

It will be prudent If authorities did take a second look at the factors contributing to the high prices of a commodity which Ghana has in enormous commercial quantities to ensure price stability or decline if the government’s 50% penetration target is to be ever achieved and to continuously promote its usage with the overall environmental promotion in mind.

Leave a Response