Energy

Analysts predict decline in fuel prices this month

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By Eugene Davis

Prices of fuel in the second pricing window of May 2023 is expected to decline, according to advocacy group, Chamber of Petroleum Consumers Ghana (COPEC).

COPEC’s estimation is as a result of the decrease in the price of crude on the international market and stable to slightly declining forex rates.

And according to the group, petrol is expected to be sold at GH¢11.67 per litre from the current GH¢12.00

Executive Secretary of COPEC, Duncan Amoah, indicated that “The second pricing window of the month of May 2023 is set to commence in a few hours from now, indications are that pump prices are likely to decline for fuel products across the country.

The following basic information forms the basis of projections for the coming window, that; Crude price has seen a decline from the mean price of $85.29/barrel to $76.64/barrel (-10.14%) whiles the forex or Dollar exchange rate has slightly decreased from a previous average of GHS12.0060 to GHS11.9963 (0.08%) per $1, the following shall be the predicted retail figures for Petroleum products.’

The second pricing window of the month of May, 2023 is set to to commence in a few hours from now. Indications are that pump prices are likely to decline for fuel products across the country.

The following basic information forms the basis of projections for the coming window, that; Crude price has seen a decline from the mean price of $85.29/barrel to $76.64/barrel (-10.14%) whiles the forex or Dollar exchange rate has slightly decreased from a previous average of GHS12.0060 to GHS11.9963 (0.08%) per $1, the following shall be the predicted retail figures for Petroleum products -Petrol GHS11.67/L, Diesel GHS11.51/L, Mean Price for Petrol and Diesel GHS11.59/L, LPG GHS10.63/kg

Thus, for a 14.5 kg LPG cylinder, is expected to be selling at GHS154.10 for the window. All Predictions are within (±5%) error margin.”

Diesel

The statement further indicated that with the international benchmark prices declining from $747.93/MT to $673.25/MT (-9.98%), the expected mean retail price for the next window shall be GHS11.51/L

Thus, Diesel is expected to also decline by some 6.53%* of the current Mean Market price of GHS12.31/L to be selling between _GHS10.93/L and GHS12.08/L_ within ±5% of projection.

Mean Price of Petrol and Diesel

The Mean price of Petrol and Diesel for the coming window per the numbers shall be 11.59/L ± 5%.

LPG

With the international benchmark prices declining from $522.77/MT to $452.75/MT (-13.39%) the projected retail price of LPG is expected to see a reduction by about 1.02% from the current average of 11.64/kg to GHS10.63/kg.

Thus, within ±5% error, LPG is expected to be sold between GHS10.10/kg and GHS11.16/kg_

COPEC, however, encouraged government to do all it can to reduce taxes on LPG or to subsidise the price of LPG to promote or encourage its nationwide accessibility and usage which will eventually help save the environment.

Mr. Amoah also projected a likely further reduction in fuel prices in June.

Petroleum products are imported into the country by bulk distribution companies or wholesalers, which then sell them to oil marketing companies or retailers. Demand for the products, especially diesel and petrol, has grown at an average of 5% per year since 2000 due to economic growth.

Three key factors drive petroleum products prices in Ghana. First is the import parity price of the product. The second is the foreign exchange rate. The third is taxes and margins.

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